Obama Widens Lead Over McCain in Nation, Key States (Update1) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aCc_gJ9GWBk8&refer=home
Obama Widens Lead Over McCain in Nation, Key States (Update1)
By Christopher Stern
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama widened his lead over Republican John McCain in most national polls and surveys of key states as the U.S. election contest heads into its final full week.
The Illinois senator was up 8 points over presidential rival McCain in an average of 16 polls taken during the last week, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Last week, Obama was up about 6 points.
Obama also has built leads in so-called battleground states including Pennsylvania and Ohio and he has an edge over McCain in some states that were Republican strongholds, such as Virginia and North Carolina.
``He had a great week,'' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden, Connecticut. Speaking of McCain, he said, ``No one has come from this far back in this little time.''
The Gallup Daily election tracking poll shows Obama up 7 points in its national survey. The CBS/New York Times and ABC/Washington Post polls put Obama up 13 points and 9 points respectively, while the latest Newsweek poll shows Obama leading McCain by 12 points.
In North Carolina, which has voted for the Republican candidate in nine of the last 10 elections, Obama and McCain are in a virtual dead heat, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports that has McCain ahead by 2 percentage points and another by Charlotte television station WSOC that has Obama in front by the same margin. In Virginia, four recent polls put Obama in the lead, by an average margin of 7 points.
Colorado Poll
In Colorado, which went to Republican President George W. Bush in 2004, Obama has taken a 12-point lead over McCain, according to a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll released late yesterday. The RealClearPolitics.com average of four Colorado polls shows Obama ahead by 7 points.
The Illinois senator has solidified support in the upper Midwest states of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan that reliably voted for Democratic presidential candidates, while tying McCain in Indiana, a state that hasn't favored a Democrat since 1964.
Because of Obama's strength in states won by Bush in 2004, McCain now must focus on a limited number of contests for a victory, said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster based in Virginia. ``It just makes it more challenging,'' he said, comparing it to trying to draw an inside straight in poker.
``Pennsylvania is critical,'' said Ayres, ``You've got to hold Ohio and Florida.''
Ohio, Florida
Bush won Ohio and Florida in 2004, while Pennsylvania went to Democrat John Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts. Together, the three states have 68 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.
Obama leads by 11 points in Pennsylvania, 6 points in Ohio and 2 in Florida, according to the Realclearpolitics.com average of polls in those states.
State and national polls have shown a wide range of results. For example, the Big 10 Battleground Poll, sponsored by several Midwestern universities, showed Obama leading by 12 points in Ohio, while a FoxNews/Rasmussen poll found McCain ahead by 2 points. An Ohio Newspaper Poll released today shows Obama ahead by 3 points, within the poll's margin of error.
The variation is said to be the result of different models used by pollsters. This year, some surveys are tweaking their assumptions on the number of new voters they expect to go to the polls. That can have a significant impact on polling results because first-time voters tend to favor Obama.
Demographic Changes
In addition, some states have seen significant demographic changes, particularly Virginia, which previously has matched other Southern states in voting patterns.
``There has been significant immigration to the state from people who are not southerners,'' said Ayers.
This year Gallup is issuing two versions of its polls. One is called traditional and shows a 7 point national lead for Obama among likely voters. An ``expanded poll'' conducted by Gallup assumes a larger turnout by new voters and shows Obama leading by 8 points.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Stern in Washington at cstern3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 25, 2008 13:43 EDT
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment